Good morning! In addition to Tropical Storm Igor, located about 3800 miles away from southwest Florida this morning, we're keeping an eye on a large tropical wave located in the southeastern Caribbean -- near the Windward Islands and the north coast of South America. This wave is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest and northwest over the next 3-5 days and could very well become our next tropical cyclone this season as it moves into the central and northern Caribbean about 5 days from now. This system should evolve slowly over the next few days but all signs point to a favorable upper level environment and -- most certainly -- favorably warm waters to be present as the wave moves westward.
As for the strength of the system and a potential track down the line, it's much too early to speculate but, generally, our models do indicate a large area of high pressure will be centered in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the south central and southeastern United States. In the absence of any kind of trough over the eastern US, this would favor a southerly track for whatever the wave ultimately becomes. In any event, lots of time to watch this one as it moves slowly westward.
Brian
