Good morning! As modeled for the better part of the last 20 days, a tropical system is developing this morning over the northwest Caribbean. In fact, the National Hurricane Center put out a statement just after 5AM this morning saying only a little additional organization is needed for a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Nicole to officially be classified. On this satellite loop, you can see the darker gray colors swirling between the Cayman Islands an the Yucatan Peninsula, near 85 West longitude; this appears to be where the center of circulation is forming.
As we've been emphasizing, future Nicole is expected to be much more of a rain maker than a wind maker for south Florida. The storm will begin to feel the effects of the southeast trough and front later today and should start to lift north across Cuba and into the Florida Straits tonight into tomorrow before tracking across south Florida. At this poitn, it looks like the track will be across the Keys and through interior Florida (or even east of here), although there is still some wiggle room with the track depending on exactly where the low level center of circulation forms. A track farther to the west means wetter weather in south Florida, farther to the east drier weather. Either way, expect cloudy, rainy, and breezy weather through most of Wednesday before drier air works in for the end of the week.
Much more on the tropics coming up on 6 TV in a few minutes!
Brian
