Just a fast update: still watching the potential for a very complex situation to evolve in the eastern Gulf/northwest Caribbean over the next 5-7 days (or more if you believe some of the modeling this morning). The pattern favors a cut off area of low pressure (trough) across the southeastern United States which is a pattern that is favorable for, at the least, substantial tropical moisture moving toward south Florida later this week. The million dollar question at this point is: what develops? Our models have been insistent for better than 2 weeks now that a system of tropical nature will affect the eastern Gulf/Florida/Bahamas region around October 1st, and they remain consistent on this although the details are becoming a little more blurry now. What initially looked like a single defined area of low pressure (Matthew), now appears it could be multiple areas of potentially weaker low pressure forming in the northwest Caribbean and moving northward.
Very unusual set up and evolution expected this week in the Caribbean and eastern Gulf. In fact, the satellite view this morning shows what's left of Matthew west of Guatemala over southern Mexico. In addition, a substantial amount of monsoonal moisture from the Pacific is moving across central America into the western Caribbean and it's all resulting in a huge circulation stretching across both the Pacific and Caribbean sides of central America. Stay tuned this week, this will be a very difficult and complex forecast for south Florida!
Brian
