Good afternoon! Lisa remains a weak tropical storm way out in the eastern Atlantic (no effect on us) and Igor is quickly losing tropical characteristics as it continues to affect the Canadian maritimes. To our southeast, though, a tropical wave is getting organized -- a wave that has been forecast by the models to develop in this general area for the better part of the last 10-14 days. This model consistency and agreement lends credence to the idea that there will soon be (by late this week) a tropical system to track in the Caribbean.
In the short term, any development should be relatively slow to occur and motion will be slow to to the west-northwest as high pressure remains lodged over the Gulf and the southeastern United States. Late this week and into the weekend, though, this ridge is forecast to break down and a trough is forecast to develop in the eastern United States. It's because of this trough that this tropical wave will certainly be worth monitoring over the next several days as it organizes and pushes into the central and, eventually, western Caribbean.
Brian
