Good morning! The tropical wave that our forecast models have been keying on for the past couple of weeks is finally coming to fruitition in the south-central Caribbean, just north of South America. The wave is becoming much better organized this morning and, for the first time, convection is becoming concentrated on what appears to be a developing center of low pressure. An Air Force Recon flight is just arriving near the tropical wave now and will be investigating it this morning; judging by nearby buoy observations, as long as a closed circulation is found it seems likely we will have a tropical depression by later today (some wind reports are in the 25-30 mph range right now).
You can see on the steering map, the short term future for 95L is for a west to west-northwest track toward Central America. From here, most of the models continue to say that a developing trough of low pressure across the eastern US will allow 95L to begin to turn more toward the north early next week. In terms of strength by early next week, much will depend on how much time it spends interacting with the rugged terrain of Central America... it's too early to answer this question. That said, some of the warmest water/highest heat content water in the entire Atlantic basin is located in the northwest Caribbean. If 95L can stay over water, it could become a significant system.
We'll be watching this wave closely over the coming days as it is possible at the very least substantial tropical moisture could head toward the eastern Gulf by the middle to end of next week!
Brian
