Hi everyone.. wanted to post an update on the weekend forecast which, a lot like last weekend, is fairly complex. The next couple of days are dry and partly cloudy.. but by Saturday, moisture will begin approaching us from both the north and south. The moisture from the south has been sitting in the Gulf and Caribbean for the past several days, part of the same system that brought us rain back on Sunday and Monday. During the week, high pressure was able to nose in from the north and push this moisture to the south.. now, as the weekend approaches, this high is going to fall apart allowing this moisture to be drawn back to the north.
At the same time, a weak cold front will be moving into northern Florida (and falling apart, likely) late Saturday into Sunday. This will help draw the Gulf moisture back to the north, as well. At the same time, an area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Gulf and move across the Florida Straits/Keys. All of this should come together to give us an increase in cloud cover for Saturday (perhaps a shower south, but I think most places right now will stay dry), and showers -- some heavy, possibly -- on Sunday. Right now, it looks like we might avoid thunderstorms as we'll be on the more stable side of this system.. that's something we'll watch over the next couple of days. Some of our models now are keeping most of the rain to our south while others (the WRF, for instance) take the heart of the heavy rain right over south Florida. With the front coming into play over north Florida, I think moisture will get drawn farther north than farther south.. so I'm leaning toward a wetter Sunday right now than some models -- like the 2 AM run of the American model -- have. But this is a very tough call for the weekend, so you'll want to stay tuned over the next couple of days.
For now, plan on Saturday being the better day of the weekend and maybe an "indoor" day on Sunday. More coming on 6 TV in just a few minutes!
Brian
