Good morning! Showers and storms will develop along the Gulf breeze this afternoon (which should have no problem developing again today, just like yesterday). There was actually a somewhat surprising lack of thunderstorm activity yesterday given the active Gulf breeze and plenty of tropical moisture in the atmosphere. The evening sounding (weather balloon) at Tampa -- taken at 8 pm last night -- still shows over 2" of what we call precipitable water in the air! Compared to the 1.5-1.75" or so over in southeast Florida, the atmosphere was juicy here but just didn't produce all that many storms.
The flow turns more easterly and northeasterly aloft today which should allow the drier air now over Florida's east coast and the Bahamas to push into the western half of the peninsula. I have rain chances a bit higher today than our forecast models suggest, but still in the isolated category today. With weak flow otherwise, the Gulf breeze should punch far enough inland to, at least initially, set off the best chances of rain near I-75 by early to mid afternoon. Highs today will run into the mid 90's.
Even drier for Wednesday before the steering currents change on Thursday to start to favor more inland storms for a couple of days. More coming on WINK in less than 10!
Brian
