Isn't that headline alone great news? After a fairly active last 2-3 weeks in the Atlantic (one hurricane, one tropical depression), the tropical Atlantic will go into a short slumber this week as wind shear and dry, dusty, desert air dominates the Atlantic basin. Most of the thunderstorms this morning are suppressed very far to the south in the Atlantic, within the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the central and eastern Atlantic and in the far southern Caribbean Sea. Because of strong high pressure, anything that tries to develop in the southern Caribbean will be guided toward Central America and out into the Pacific.
The Saharan Air Layer (top image - orange = dry), or SAL, covers much of the Atlantic from the eastern Caribbean to the African coast. This burst of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert is being pushed eastward by a strong area of high pressure located over the central Atlantic. This high will weaken, though, as we head toward the end of the week so the dry air over the Atlantic should abate. Incidentally, some of that dry, dusty air will push into southwest Florida by late this week (lower left hand panel of the forecast model I posted -- image 2 -- is moisture at 10,000 feet.. orange = dry).
All signs continue to point to next week being one to watch in the Atlantic as the air moistens in the Atlantic and the wind shear weakens. Several of our models have indicated the possibility for multiple developments starting next weekend onward and we'll be watching closely. Nothing specific yet, but there should be much more to track in about 7 days! In the meantime, enjoy the respite!
Brian
