Good morning! As we talked about last week, we're going to see an uptick in activity this week in the tropical Atlantic as wind shear slackens basin-wide and a pulse of upward motion moves through much of the Atlantic. Put all of this together and, at the very least, a pattern toward quite a bit of thunderstorm activity (whether organized or not) is in the forecast this week in the Atlantic.
This morning, there are two areas we're watching. One is located in the central Caribbean, a little southeast of Jamaica. Upper level wind is favorable for development in this part of the Caribbean and slow organization is expected as this wave moves generally westward toward Central America. With a ridge of high pressure in control across the southern tier of the United States, though, this wave poses no threat at all to Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.
Another wave, though, could be a different story. This wave is now located a little northeast of Puerto Rico and is producing a flare up of thunderstorms this morning. An upper level low is centered northwest of here, though, and this is producing unfavorably strong (greater than 30 knots) of wind shear from much of Florida through the Bahamas. As a result, any organization of this wave is expected to be slow as it moves toward the west-northwest. This wave will affect southwest Florida by the end of the week and into the weekend; the only question is whether it's just as a tropical wave or a more organized system. Most of our models still forecast wind shear to be too strong to allow for any organization but it will have to be monitored closely as it approaches the Bahamas at mid-week and wind shear does weaken. The water in the Florida Straits/Bahamas region is very warm and if upper level wind weakens, this wave will be worth watching closely.
More coming up later this morning!
Brian
