Good morning! The tropical disturbance we were following yesterday in the northwest Caribbean has moved back out over the Gulf of Mexico this morning. After affecting the Yucatan for the past 24 hours, it will now have a chance to reorganize and perhaps strengthen into a depression or tropical storm over the next 36-48 hours before headed toward north Mexico or south Texas late this week.
Analysis this morning continues to indicate a good deal of spin in the upper levels of the atmosphere with this system and morning infrared satellite imagery appears to show some low level circulation now as well. We'll have a better grip on the low level look of the storm as the sun comes up and visible satellite becomes useful. The system is going to track over some fairly deep/warm water over the next day or two and wind shear is forecast to be on the very light (5-10 knots or less) side. This should allow the system to organize as it approaches the western Gulf coast. The question will be if there's enough water for it to cross before it reaches land. Most of our tropical forecast models do get 96L to a weak tropical storm before it reaches the western Gulf.
Brian
