Good morning! The tropical wave we've been watching for the last few days continues to have a lot of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity with it. Not much has changed in the forecast thinking from earlier; the wave is still fighting very strong wind aloft (wind shear greater than 20 knots just north of the center) as well as being relatively close to land right now. Over the next 48 hours, the wave will be guided on a west-northwest track by an upper level ridge of high pressure; this will put the wave in the vicinity of the Bahamas or northern Cuba by Thursday. At this point, some of our models indicate that wind shear could weaken to the point where organization of the wave could begin to occur but, at this point, it's really not too much to worry about.
The bottom line right now? Expect the chance of rain and storms to increase as we head into Friday night and Saturday as the wave (perhaps a more organized system) crosses the Florida Straits and south Florida. Stay tuned!
Brian
