Good morning! While you were sleeping last night, the second tropical depression of the season formed in the south-central Gulf of Mexico and is now approaching the north Mexico/south Texas coast this morning. It is a very disorganized system, which is surprising given that it is moving through a very low wind shear environment. Likely inhibiting development though is the relatively cooler water in the western Gulf compared to what it was just a week ago (see the above tropical cyclone heat potential map -- where there were brighter/warmer colors last week, there are color colors this week). This is due to the passage of Hurricane Alex through this region of the Gulf last week, which likely churned upward some of the cooler water from deep below the surface of the Gulf.
TD2 has a slim chance to become Tropical Storm Bonnie and, if it's going to do it, it's going to have to happen in the next 6-8 hours as landfall approaches. Officially, the NHC does not bring this onshore as a tropical storm.
Anything else to watch in the tropics? There is an area of low pressure off the east coast that some of our models say will try to transition to a subtropical system, but a full transition is unlikely at this point. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure sits across much of the Atlantic and Caribbean and likely will remain over the next 5-10 days. This will generally keep any waves suppressed to the south through early next week. Some of our models are keying in on a large tropical wave forecast to exit the west coast of Africa in about 3 days. This wave could be near the northeast Caribbean by mid to late next week.
Brian
