Good morning! The trend in the tropical Atlantic continues to be toward upward motion; as a result, there are several clusters thunderstorms spread out along roughly 10 degrees north latitude. North of this latitude, though, the Atlantic is pretty inhospitable to tropical development -- very dry, dusty Saharan air is located across the central and eastern Atlantic and high wind shear is located elsewhere. While it is not entirely out of the question that there could be tropical development at very low latitudes over the next 5 days, none of our forecast models are pointing to that. Either way, the Gulf and the Caribbean are largely shut off right now because of a large, strong area of high pressure located to the north.
A non-tropical area of low pressure is spinning east of the Carolinas this morning over some very warm water. It is gaining a more organized, more tropical "looking" structure as I write this but it is simply running out of time to develop as it's about to be picked up by a front moving through the Ohio Valley now.
Elsewhere, in the longer range, our ensemble forecast models are pointing toward a period of enhanced tropical activity in the Atlantic starting next weekend and during the third week in July. We'll keep an eye on it as it was these same ensemble models that correctly forecast the trend toward a pattern more favorable for more northward development during the last weeks of June/early July (when both Alex and TD2 formed).
Brian
