Good morning! The tropical Atlantic remains relatively quiet at mid-week and is expected to remain quiet (not abnormal, by the way, for the month of July) through the weekend. There are several waves I'm watching, but none at this point look like candidates to develop anytime soon. Most certainly, not the western most two waves -- one just east of Florida this morning and another east of the Bahamas; both of these waves are located in high wind shear environments not supportive of tropical development. The wave farther out in the Atlantic though ("Mid-Week" wave), might be more interested as it tracks WNW-ward across the Atlantic. However, dry air is still expected to be in place across the western Atlantic and wind shear may still run a bit too high for any real development as this wave approaches the Bahamas and eventually Florida into the middle part of next week.
Overall, though, the trend continues to look to be toward more activity during the last 10 days of July. The wind shear pattern is weakening (image 2) in general across the Atlantic andis is a pattern more conducive for tropical development. The trick will be how long does the dry, dusty, desert air (image 3) continue to come off of Africa. With such an active early "African wave train," the dry air that was pretty far south in the eastern Atlantic has been eroded some over the past couple of days. These waves are expected to continue to push every couple of days off of Africa -- a sign of things to come later in the season.
Brian
