Good morning! I'm still watching a very large tropical wave this morning located over Hispanolia, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. In fact -- in a region of much weaker wind shear -- thunderstorm activity is actually much more robust this morning well east of where the apparent center of low pressure is now. This will be a trend to watch later today as sometimes developing systems like to relocate their centers multiple times toward areas of sustained convection.
As for the foreacst model tracks, don't pay too much attention to them yet as the models often struggle with the placing/timing of a system until there's actually a center of low pressure to track (there's really not here yet). That said, I still expect the chance of rain/storms to increase as we move toward late Friday and into Saturday.
More coming later!
Brian
