Good afternoon! I'm still leaving the chance of rain a little higher than our forecast models suggest for this afternoon, but the coverage in storms should be isolated across the area as drier air has moved into the mid levels of the atmosphere. As the Gulf breeze kicks in, expect a few showers and storms to develop mainly nearly I-75 and then move offshore into the early evening. A similar set up is in the forecast for tomorrow before a trend toward more inland storms builds for Thursday and especially Friday.
What about the tropics? The tropical Atlantic should remain quiet, as expected, for the next week or so. A lot of dry air is dominating the Atlantic right now and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (a pattern of upward/downward motion that moves eastward through the tropics) is currently in a "sinking" phase across most of the Atlantic basin. The MJO, as it's known, is expected to enter a prolonged "upward" phase in the Atlantic starting after the first week in August. This favors enhanced tropical activity in the basin. Also, our forecast models (ensembles) point toward increased activity after August 1st -- so this looks like a safe bet. No specifics yet, though; stay tuned!
Brian
