Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today, tonight and tomorrow...

An area of low pressure, abundant surface moisture, strong winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and a near-by jet stream will combine forces to provide a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight and through the day tomorrow. Some of the storms that do develop may become strong to severe. The threat for strong weather is likely the greatest we've experienced this winter thus far.

We have experienced a frequent pattern of storm systems affecting SWFL this season thereby robbing the 'dry season' of it's typical title. We've racked up rainfall totals at times and a few thunderstorms have rolled through the area but severe weather has remained a rare occurrence. The lack of strong and severe weather despite the wetter weather pattern is due in large part because of a lack of warmth and instability associated with the previous systems.

We know that it's been the coldest December through February period in SWFL since 1981...the cool air has contributed to the lack of storm action in that the atmosphere was too cool and too stable to support the development of strong thunderstorms. This will not be the case today.

High temperatures reaching to 80 degrees and a moderate amount of instability in the atmosphere will allow for possible thunderstorm initiation and once initiated a storm may be able to tap into supportive dynamics in the mid and upper atmosphere. A strong low-level jet and the sub-tropical jet stream which will move over the northern part of the peninsula could enable a thunderstorm to strengthen to strong to severe levels. The main threats will include damaging winds, heavy rainfall and lightning though the possibility of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

The chance of rain and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast until the cold front associated with the above-mentioned area of low pressure passes through SWFL tomorrow evening. Expect rainfall amounts through the period of 1-2" with 3+" possible locally.

We'll keep you informed of any and all weather updates on WINK!

Lauren