The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is underway and it is not underway with what I'd call a completely quiet start. There are several batches of showers and storms in the Caribbean, most notably those associated with the remnants of Pacific storm Agatha off the coast of Mexico. However, none of these areas are likely to develop into anything. The most "threatening" area is that in the western Caribbean (Agatha's remnants), however, wind shear is very high just north of these remnants and that will prevent any redevelopment. Some of the tropical moisture from Agatha should head in our general direction Wed-Fri (you can already see the rain this morning going in the Florida Straits) and help increase our chance of rain along the afternoon Gulf breezes, but that's about it.
In the month of June, we generally look at the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic just off the southeast coast for development (see the top image of typical June Atlantic storm tracks - courtesy NOAA). On average, we end up with one named storm every couple of years in the Atlantic during the month of June. Nothing appears likely to develop over the next 7-10 days over the Atlantic though as shear remains high over the Gulf and, later, the Caribbean according to most of our models. This year, we may get development farther east earlier in the season owing to warmer water in the central Atlantic, but here to there's nothing I'm really concerned about right now.
Last week, we got the forecast from NOAA for 14-23 named storms. Tomorrow, we'll get the updated forecast for Colorado State (the last one, issued in April, called for 15 named storms). I'll have that for you tomorrow.
Brian
