Above, I have included this mornings infrared satellite picture (brighter, warmer colors show you where the higher cloud tops are -- colder temperatures, thus stronger thunderstorm activity). Notice there's a belt of activity stretching from the southern Caribbean along the northern Coast of South America and back out into the central and even eastern Atlantic, south of 10 degrees north latitude. This belt, known as the intertropical convergence zone (or ITCZ) is where a lot of tropical activity gets its start. Usually, this area is located well south of the strongest wind shear associated with the westerlies (jet streams) that dominate the weather across the United States and north Atlantic, no exception right now.
What I am seeing, though, for so early in the season, is the presence of somewhat organized clusters of showers and storms very far east in the Atlantic. Usually, the water is too cool to support deep, prolonged thunderstorm activity in the eastern Atlantic until later in the season (the Cape Verde season -- August/September -- when long-tracked storms often develop off the east coast of Africa). This year, though, the water is abnormally warm.. by as much as 2-3 degrees celsius in the central and eastern Atlantic (warmer colors on the second image I've attached). This is helping to enhance activity this early in the season in the Atlantic and is possibly a harbinger of things to come later this season.
Steering wind right now is carrying all of these clusters of storms into South America and the southern Caribbean; thus, they really have no opportunity to affect us in southwest Florida. There are signs that toward the end of next week or early the week after that (3rd week of June), the pattern could change some of the southern Gulf might be an area to watch. Of course, we'll be doing that for you.
Otherwise, no tropical development is expected over the next week or so.
Brian
