Updated 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast from Colorado State University

Dr. Klotzbach, Dr. Gray and their research team at Colorado State University have issued their updated forecast for the 2010 Hurricane Season and, like NOAA's forecast issued last week, the Colorado State forecast is calling for a very busy hurricane season this year.

The team at CSU is predicting the development of 18 named storms, with 10 becoming hurricanes and 5 strengthening to major hurricanes in the 2010 season. These numbers are well above the numbers for an average hurricane season which sees the development of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. CSU increased their numbers in this newest outlook across the board from their prediction in April of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

The reasoning behind the forecast for an active to very active season cited by both the team at Colorado State and by NOAA remains;

1. the demise of El Nino with the likely transition to La Nina conditions by, what is typically the busiest portion of hurricane season, the months of August and September

2. the resulting decrease in wind shear (strong mid and upper atmospheric winds) over the Atlantic

3. well-above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic with temperatures currently running at near record levels in the Main Development Region for tropical systems, an area in the Atlantic stretching from the West African coast to the coast of Central America

4. the influence of multi-decal signal which is a natural occurring cycle during which times of less tropical activity or more tropical activity are experienced within a time span of 15-30 years. Since 1995, we have been in a cycle of increased tropical activity.

For a closer look at Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray's forecast:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf

Tune into WINK News at 5pm with Chief Meteorologist Jim Farrell for more details on this latest hurricane season forecast and don't forget to watch our WINK News Hurricane Special which airs tonight at 8pm on WINK.

Have great day,
Lauren