Scott: Wow a perfect weather day across the area. Sun, sun and more sun! Will it last?

Looks like the sun will shine on SWFL for the next several days! After a cool start, 40's and 50's, you can expect highs in or close to 80 degrees. Looks like this high pressure will keep the rain away for the seven day period. Enjoy! Details starting at 5 with me.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Morning lows.. 50 Naples, 52 Fort Myers

We're starting to warm back up now into the mid 50's with a mostly sunny to completely sunny sky across SWFL. Light Gulf breeze will keep temps in the low to mid 70's at the coast while we approach 80 across inland areas.

 

I just got a chance to take a look at some of the new forecast models coming in (2 AM updates).. and the American model is now holding off our next cold front until, at the earliest, the end of next week or next weekend (around the 9th-11th of April). Until then, a very dry and warm stretch in the forecast. Lauren will have the latest details for you coming up at 11 AM on 6 TV and noon on WINK. I'll see you again tomorrow morning!

 

Brian

Brian: High pressure leading to a clear and cool start to Wednesday

Good morning! High pressure is anchored in the eastern Gulf this morning; we still have a slight onshore breeze but not enough of one to prevent temps from starting chilly this morning. Right now, we're starting in the mid 50's along the coast and in the mid to upper 40's inland. We'll still have a light northwest breeze just about all of the day which will keep our beaches a little cooler.. mid to low 70's there. Meantime, inland we'll make it into the upper 70's! A rundown of highs today..

Naples:  Sunny; High 74

Bonita Springs:  Sunny; High 76

Fort Myers:  Sunny; High 76

Cape Coral:  Sunny; High 75

Port Charlotte:  Sunny; High 74

Hendry Co.:  Sunny; High 78

Glades Co.:  Sunny; High 77

DeSoto Co.:  Sunny; High 76

We'll have one more chilly night tonight with similar low temperatures tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon though, as high pressure moves off the east coast, we'll have more of an easterly breeze for more of the day delaying the onset of the Gulf breeze. Most places should get to near 80 tomorrow (still 70's at the beaches.. but warmer for you as well!). Even warmer looking ahead to the Easter weekend as a strong ridge builds in aloft... we'll be in the low 80's at the beaches and in the mid 80's elsewhere each day! A cold front will break apart in the face of the strong ridging Sunday and Monday across northern Florida. All signs point to the next 10-14 days being basically dry across south Florida with slightly warmer than average temps sticking around. It's been a fairly wet winter, but the next 2 weeks will likely go a long way toward significantly increasing the fire danger across SWFL as we hit the peak of the brush fire season. More on that over the next several days.

 

Have a great day!

 

Brian

Scott: Sunny weather with warmer temperatures by Easter weekend!

Clear sky for the next few days! Temperatures will start on the cool side tomorrow, upper 40's and low 50's. But each afternoon warming into the middle 80's by Easter Sunday! Details on WINK 5, 6, 7 and 11 and 6tv at 10.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Mostly sunny, near 70 right now.. into the low to mid 70's later..

The few clouds we had earlier today are evaporating now as the effect of high pressure is felt across SWFL.. sinking air = drying air = very few (if any!) clouds later today. That will set the stage for a cold night (for the last morning of March) overnight.. 40's inland and 50's along the coast. Mostly sunny tomorrow afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 70's. Big warming trend for the weekend means highs in the 80's for us.. and 70's and 80's all the way up into New England! Scott will have the latest tonight starting at 5pm..

 

Brian

Brian: Mostly clear & cool this morning.. temps in the 50's

Good morning! High pressure is nosing in from the west this morning giving us a mainly clear sky and a cool, but not cold, start this morning. The wind coming in off the Gulf is keeping temperatures up just a bit this morning.. in the low 50's inland and mid to upper 50's at the coast. There is a band of high clouds left behind from yesterday's front over Collier and Hendry Counties early.. this should dissipate later today.

 

It will be breezy today, but not as windy as yesterday. With the wind still coming in off of the Gulf, though, temperatures should stay in the low 70's right at the beaches and push into the mid 70's elsewhere. Tonight and tomorrow night will be chilly with high pressure overhead. Temps will drop into the 40's inland and into the low 50's at the coast.. warm afternoons, though, with nearly wall-to-wall sun -- highs in the mid to upper 70's Wednesday and low 80's on Thursday.

 

More coming up in a few minutes on WINK. See you there!

 

Brian

Brian: High pressure in control today.. a little breezy, low to mid 70's

A look at some city forecasts for today...

 

Naples:  Mostly Sunny  Breezy; High 73

 

Bonita Springs:  Mostly Sunny  Breezy; High 75

 

Fort Myers:  Mostly Sunny  Breezy; High 74

 

Cape Coral:  Mostly Sunny  Breezy; High 74

 

Port Charlotte:  Sunny  Breezy; High 73

 

Hendry Co.:  Mostly Sunny  Breezy; High 75

 

Glades Co.:  Mostly Sunny  Breezy; High 74

 

DeSoto Co.:  Sunny  Breezy; High 74

 

Brian

Scott: after a rainy morning the sun has returned to SWFL. We got anywhere from 6" in Port Charlotte to .75" in Naples.

Get ready for a great week weather wise. Lots of sun and low humidity. Enjoy this stretch of weather. This morning and last night we got some heavy rain arcoss the area. Port Charlotte 5.80", Fort Myers .50", Naples .75", Immokalee 2.60", Clewiston 3.50", Bonita Springs 2.70", Cape Coral .37", La Belle 1.80", Arcadia 1.06" and Lehigh Acres 1.10". Full details and you forecast starting at 5 tonight with Jim, join me at 7 and 10.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Tornado watch continues for Collier, dropped for Hendry...

The tornado watch continues for Collier County until 11 AM, although it still appears the severe weather threat has long sine passed. There is a line of showers (with some embedded heavier rain) pushing into the far eastern Gulf and about to move into coastal Charlotte and Lee right now. This should be the last bit of rain to move through... with coastal sections of Lee, Charlotte and eventually Collier drying out by late morning/early afternoon.

 

The wind will pick up behind the cold front from the northwest.. and we end up with some sunshine to end the day. Temperatures today will stay in the low to mid 70's. Tonight, as high pressure builds in, the sky will clear and tomorrow starts cool.. in the mid 50's with afternoon highs in the mid 70's. High pressure will sit right over SWFL Wednesday and Thursday, meaning cool mornings, warm afternoons, and very sunny weather are in the forecast.

 

By Easter weekend, that high moves off the east coast leading to warmer and more humid weather.. with highs in the mid 80's. Easter weekend looks dry though!

 

Brian

Brian: Severe weather threat basically over..

Most of the stronger activity has moved over the east coast as I write this.. and the atmosphere has stablized considerably in Collier and Hendry Counties. Officially, a tornado watch remains active until 11 AM but I expect it to be dropped in the next hour or two. Otherwise, a steady light to moderate rain is moving in off of the Gulf this morning ahead of the main cold front.. which should arrive at midday.

 

Brian

Brian: Tornado warning now cancelled..

Correction.. the NWS has now cancelled the tornado warning (again) for eastern Collier.

Brian: Light rain now through most of Lee.. heavier about to move onshore..

Watching some moderate to heavy rain right now west of the Lee Island coast.. now about to move onshore. Not much (if any) lightning with this.. and certainly not a severe weather threat with it. That said, plan on some moderate to heavy rain as we head toward sunrise in Lee County.

 

Still tracking a potentially severe/tornadic storm in eastern Collier County as it makes its way toward the Alley.. and Broward County. It's straddling the Alley right now with some very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Tornado warning remains in effect until 6:30 AM for eastern Collier.

Brian: Tornado warning re-issued for Collier...

Same cell as earlier.. a lot of heavy rain and frequent lightning. Heading toward the Alley in eastern Collier... be aware travelers!

 

Elsewhere, the rain is steady, but much lighter overall across Lee and Charlotte. Thunderstorm (not severe) near Lehigh headed toward or just north of La Belle. Overall though, t-storm threat will be diminishing over the next few hours.

Brian: Tornado warning cancelled for E-Central Collier County...

But there is still quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rain east of SR-29. Be careful!

 

Brian

Brian: Tornado Warning for East Central Collier Until 5:30 AM..

Watching a cell east of Turner River Rd.. north of US-41 and south of I-75 in Collier near Big Cypress with some evidence of rotation. Tornado warning in effect until 5:30 AM. Updates on WINK..

 

Brian

Brian: Tornado watch for Hendry & Collier Until 11 AM...

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist
WINK-TV
(239) 338-4369, brian.monahan@winktv.com

Lauren: A line of showers and thunderstorms moving through western Lee County. Heavy rain and lightning affecting Pine Island and the western part of the Cape. Storms will affect Ft. Myers within 30 minutes.

Lauren: Thunderstorms approaching Arcadia in DeSoto County. Expect heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds. The storms are moving NE at 25 mph.

Lauren: The line of showers and thunderstorms affecting Charlotte county is approaching the northern Lee county coastline. The line will continue to move eastward to affect much of the Lee county coast within the next hour.

Lauren: A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving into western Charlotte county. Expect heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds. The line is moving NE at 25 mph.

A severe thunderstorm is currently located over Lake Placid in Highlands County. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds over 60 mph and is likely producing hail up to walnut size.

Frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall is also associated with this storm cell. A severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect for Highlands County until 7pm. The storm is moving NE at 30 mph. Remain indoors and stay away from windows until this storm has passed.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Central Highlands County for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. Storm is just west of Lake Placid moving NE at 25 mph.

Lauren: Thunderstorm approaching Lake Placid area in Highlands County may be producing hail up to penny sized.

Lauren: A line of showers and thunderstorms moving into Highlands County. Storms will affect Lake Placid within the next 30 mins. Expect heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.

Lauren: After a beautiful start to the weekend, conditions take a rainy turn for our Sunday.

It was a Saturday full of bright sunshine with some of the warmest temperatures we've felt across SWFL all month long with highs in the low to mid 80's, but as an area of low pressure moves eastward across the Southeast, conditions will be less than desirable for our outdoor plans tomorrow. Expect a partly cloudy sky to kick off the day, but clouds will be on the increase into midday with scattered rain and thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures will warm to low 80's thanks to a southerly flow in advance of a cold front.

Rainfall intensity and coverage will only increase into Sunday night with the possibility of a few strong storms overnight with the storm threat continuing into Monday. Rain will be likely for the first day of the work week as the cold front moves through the state. The rain event comes to a conclusion Monday evening with decreasing cloud cover Monday night. Rainfall totals from Sunday into Monday could certainly top 2 inches in some areas. High pressure builds in for Tuesday returning sunshine to our sky.

Have great night!
Lauren

Scott: We are drying things out now. Some rain this morning, about .25" in Naples to .75" in Punta Gorda! hHow about the weekend?

The weekend is looking ok for tomorrow! Should see enough of a push behind the front to move it far enough south for a mostly sunny Saturday. Sunday however, we will watch the clouds increase and rain will develop late in the day. Highs will still be in the low 80's. Monday we will watch another cold front move through, rain chances will be greatest in the morning. Could see up to an inch in many areas. Details starting at 5 with Jim. Join me at 10 on 6TV!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Lauren: A cold front pulls in this afternoon and kicks out the rain chances.

Scattered rain with a few thunderstorms moved across SWFL last night and into the first half of our Friday. Greatest rainfall totals came out of Charlotte County with .81 inches in Punta Gorda. Isolated rain still possible especially over Collier until the cold front, which is currently located over the Tampa Bay area, passes through later this afternoon.

As drier and cooler air continues to push in behind the boundary, expect decreasing cloud cover from north to south through the afternoon and into this evening. Friday night plans won't be dampened with a partly cloudy sky becoming mostly clear and lower humidity, but you may want to bring the jacket along as temperatures will cool into the 60's by this evening with mid 50's in our future for early tomorrow morning.

High pressure settles in for our Saturday allowing for a great start to the weekend with a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky and despite a cool morning, afternoon highs will rebound to near 80 degrees.

Our next rain event begins to take shape late Sunday, for the details on another round of wet weather tune into WINK News Now at 5pm with Jim and Scott!

Lauren: Heavy rain moving into Marco Island. Gusty winds to 35 mph possible.

Lauren: A swath of moderate to heavy rainfall is moving southeastward through southern Lee and northern coastal Collier counties. Heaviest rain currently over Bonita Springs and Naples Park. Heavy rain will move into downtown Naples within the next 1

Lauren: Scattered light to moderate rain moving over central and southern Lee County. The heaviest rainfall currently over Estero.

Scott: Still on track for rain moving in overnight and lasting through tomorrow. If the cold front stalls, changes to your weekend.

Cold front approaching the region overnight! Scattered rain with a few storms are possible ovenight into the afternoon. Looks like this cold front wants to stall out over SWFL. If this happens Saturday may feature a few more clouds and showers possible. Right now we are forecasting .50" to 1" through Friday. So after a dry Sunday, rain returns again Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday! Stay tunned for details. This is a tricky forecast. Join me now on 6tv!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Scott: Still on track for rain moving in overnight and lasting through tomorrow. If the cold front stalls, changes to your weekend. Details @10

Cold front approaching the region overnight! Scattered rain with a few storms are possible ovenight into the afternoon. Looks like this cold front wants to stall out over SWFL. If this happens Saturday may feature a few more clouds and showers possible. Right now we are forecasting .50" to 1" through Friday. So after a dry Sunday, rain returns again Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday! Stay tunned for details. This is a tricky forecast. Join me now on 6tv!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Rain Tomorrow

Becoming cloudy tonight with rain likely tomorrow.  Weekend temperatures should make it into the low 80's. See you at 5pm! - Jim

Lauren: A much more mild start to our day with a warm afternoon in store

It was a cold start to our Wednesday morning with temperatures in the upper 40's and low 50's but starting off much more mild this morning with temperatures in the low 60's!

Our surface wind will shift from the east to the south this afternoon allowing temperatures to warm quite effectively despite the increased cloud cover today. Expect highs in the upper 70's along the coast to low 80's inland.

A forecast high of 82 degrees today would make only the fifth day of the month so far that the high temperature hit or surpassed the 80 degree mark in Ft. Myers...our average high is 82! Not only have temperatures been unseasonable but significantly below the average as high temperatures didn't escape the 60's a total of eight days in Ft. Myers earlier this month!

To make up for a cool March thus far, Mother Nature has a warm streak in store and I'll have the details on the warm air plus Friday rain in the forecast coming up on WINK News at 11am on 6TV and WINK News Now at Noon!

Have a great morning!
Lauren

Scott: Not as cool tonight. But we are watching the next system that will bring us rain Friday. Details starting at 5.

Our next cold front will stall right over SWFL. It is getting to be that time of the year where the fronts have a hard time pushing through. Warmer weather for your Thursday, then rain by Friday. Right now we could see up to a .50" on average. Because the front most likely wont make it all the way through SWFL the weekend is looking not as nice. Might have to deal with more clouds and maybe a few showers. Stay tunned on that. Details starting at 5 on WINK. Join me at 7 on WINK!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Warmer

This little warming trend will last until Friday morning.  It will be mostly clear tonight, despite a few high clouds, then mostly sunny early tomorrow followed by more clouds late tomorrow afternoon with rain on the way for Friday. - Jim

Brian: Unsettled weather pattern starting Friday..

Quick update on the extended forecast: A front will move into southwest Florida on Friday giving us a chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chance will depend on how slowly the front moves and how many breaks of sun we can work in across inland areas... but a t-storm or two is not out of the question Friday afternoon. Some showers and clouds will linger on Saturday morning.. but by Saturday afternoon it should turn partly cloudy with highs in the upper 70's. Right now, the newest models continue to target late Sunday for our next chance of showers and storms.. in a pattern that looks similar to last weekend. Most of Sunday should be dry but near the end of the afternoon we should see more rain showing up on the radar and this rain chance lingers into Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Jim and Scott will have more on your forecast tonight starting at 5!

 

Brian

Brian: Mostly sunny, temps in the 70's now..

It's a beautiful early afternoon with a mostly sunny sky and temperatures in the low to mid 70's throughout the area. So far, the Gulf breeze has not yet emerged along the coast but that will change later this afternoon as the difference in temperature between land and water helps the westerly wind get going. Once that happens, temperatures will fall to near 70 along the coast but remain in the mid to upper 70's (if not around 80) inland.

 

Much more on your forecast coming up on WINK in about 7 minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: A chilly start this morning, some patchy fog..

Good morning! The wind was light overnight with high pressure nearby and temperatures fell to near the dewpoint... that's adding up to give us some patchy haze and fog first thing this morning. The sky will clear out though this morning and we'll end up with a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. As high pressure slides to the east, we end up with more of a land breeze for more of the day today; this means even our beach communities make it into the low to mid 70's today.. with upper 70's to near 80 inland! A Gulf breeze will form by mid afternoon along the coast, though.

 

Not as cool tomorrow morning with a few more clouds around and more humid conditions; we'll start Thursday near 60. Warm and even more humid for tomorrow afternoon with highs in the upper 70's and low 80's! Our next chance of rain moves in with a weakening cold front on Friday.. there could even be a few thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. I'll have more on this and the weekend forecast coming up on 6 TV in just a few minutes. Hope you can join us!

 

Brian

Clear Sky!

Clear and cool tonight.  Mostly sunny and beautiful tomorrow.  Enjoy! - Jim

Brian: Mostly sunny today, highs in the low to mid 70's...

High pressure will nose in from the west later today, helping to scour out some of the low clouds that are around near daybreak this morning. For the afternoon, there will be just a few high clouds around. With a northwest wind, we'll stay a little cooler at the beaches once again -- near 70.. but inland we should manage mid 70's.

 

Tonight, as that high moves overhead, we'll see the coolest night of the week with lows in the 40's inland and low to mid 50's at the coast. Tomorrow, we'll lose the onshore breeze for most of the day (except for a late PM sea breeze), allowing everyone to warm into the 70's to near 80 degrees! Warmer still for Thursday with highs in the low 80's. Our next chance of rain gets here by midday Friday as a weak front moves into the eastern Gulf. We could see a few heavier downpours and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Like I said yesterday, it will stay warm though with temperatures close to 80 even with the rain chance!

 

Much more on your forecast on WINK in just a few minutes.. see you there!

 

Brian

Scott: Rain has left SWFL and we will begin to clear things out and cool down overnight.

With the rain coming in yesterday and some rain early this morning we have picked up anywhere from an 1" to 1.75". Things are drying out now. Tonight we will see temperatures fall into the 50's. Afternoon highs will reach the middle to low 70's. Chance of rain Friday into Saturday. Details starting at 5pm on WINK.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Less Humid

Enjoy March weather in SW Florida.  Ti will be partly cloudy then clear and pleasant tomorrow with low relative humidity.  The next chance of rain will be on Friday. - Jim

Brian: Rain has moved out.. drier air moving in.. breezy & cooler today

This morning's rain has moved over to the east coast as a cold front continues to push farther away from the area. For the rest of the afternoon, clouds will gradually break.. leaving us with a partly cloudy sky. The breeze will pick up and it's a cooler day -- temperatures will stay in the low to mid 70's.

 

Overnight, high pressure builds in from the west and stays with us through Thursday. As it moves to the east, we'll get warmer each afternoon.. from the mid 70's tomorrow.. to near 80 Wednesday.. to the low 80's on Thursday! There will be some cool mornings though.. as a clear sky and light wind come together to lead to morning lows in the 50's (and some 40's Wednesday morning inland).

 

The next chance of rain gets here on Friday with a fairly weak upper level disturbance. Even though the upper level disturbance is weak, there will be a lot of low level moisture back in place and there could be some areas of heavy rain at week's end. We'll keep an eye on the forecast models over the next few days and refine this forecast.

 

See you on WINK in a few minutes with more on your forecast!

 

Brian

Brian: Heavier rain now falling in Collier and south Lee Counties..

The last burst of moderate to heavy rain is falling through coastal south Lee and Collier Counties now.. affecting Bonita Springs south to around downtown Naples. This will move inland toward SE Lee County and inland Collier County over the next 20 minutes. Drying trend the rest of the morning.. with sunshine returning by the afternoon. The wind is light now, it will turn breezy this afternoon, though!

 

Brian

Brian: Heavy rain falling in south Lee now/Lehigh..

A band of heavier rain is coming off of the Gulf and is now affecting Estero, Bonita Springs and the south side of Lehigh Acres. This should move east over the next 10-15 minutes...

 

Brian

Brian: Steady light to moderate rain over Lee County..

Steady light to moderate rain continues to push out of the Gulf and over Lee County.. northeast toward Charlotte County and Highlands/Glades Counties. This should continue over the next hour or two and then gradually slide south as a front starts to clear the area. Collier County mainly quiet for now but your rain chance will increase a bit later this morning. Temperatures are seasonable this morning.. near 60 most spots.

 

Brian

Brian: Light to moderate rain this morning...

The weekend ended with rain, some heavy; the work week is starting with some rain -- but most of it is light this morning. A band of light (to occasionally moderate) rain stretches from the Gulf through the Lee Island Coast and northeast to Lake Placid this morning just behind a lazy, slow moving cold front that's now on the east coast. Clouds and showers will stick around for the next few hours with gradual clearing for the afternoon. Breezy and cooler today with highs in the low 70's for the most part.

 

Warmer weather returns at mid-week, more on that on WINK-TV coming up in just a few minutes. See you then!

 

Brian

It was a sunny start to weekend, but a stormy first full day of Spring...

Rainfall totals reached to two inches in Port Charlotte and other parts of Charlotte County...an inch and half of rain along the Lee County coast along with the lightning and gusty winds put a damper on beach plans for our Sunday...and rain remains in the forecast for tonight into the first half of Monday.

The cold front which spurred the storm activity is currently passing through SWFL but energy from an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere moving through the Southeast will push across the state tomorrow. Isolated rain remains possible tonight ahead of the disturbance with more scattered rain through Monday morning.

By early afternoon, a few showers may linger...but gradual clearing will commence after midday Monday. Rainfall totals tonight through tomorrow will not be as impressive as today's tallies with general amounts between .10 - .25 inch likely. A few storms will be possible, but widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected. Clouds along with a push of cooler air behind the front will keep high temperatures in the low 70's to kick off the work week.

The cooler weather doesn't stay for long though as a moderate area of high pressure pulls in from the Gulf on Tuesday returning us to a mostly sky and highs in the upper 70's with highs near 80 degrees with continued sunshine for Wednesday!

Have a great night!
Lauren

A thunderstorm cell moving through western Lee county, currently over Cape Coral, has the potential to produce pea-sized hail. The storm is moving NE at 40 mph.

A line of showers and thunderstorms now moving through western Lee county. Expect heavy rainfall and the possibility of gusty winds and lightning.

The line is moving east at 45 mph and the leading edge will begin to will affect downtown Ft. Myers within the next 15 minutes.

...the possibility of pea-sized hail.

Strong storms affecting western Charlotte and southern DeSoto counties. These storms are moving east at 30 mph and will affect Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda within the next 20 minutes. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall and lightning are likely with the po

A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving through Charlotte and DeSoto counties. Expect periods of heavy rainfall with the possibility of lightning and wind gusts to near 50 mph. The line of showers and storms is moving east at 50 mph w

Brian: A gusty storm possible tomorrow..

I'm looking at some of the new forecast model information coming in and they're pointing to the amosphere possibly being a bit more unstable by tomorrow afternoon/early evening.. unstable enough to allow for a couple of gusty storms. The reason for this will be a strong southerly/southwesterly flow helping to pull moisture back toward SWFL.. this coupled with some strong wind just above the ground should be able to combine to allow for some stronger wind gusts in any heavier showers/storms tomorrow late. Timing wise, we're still looking at most of the day being dry.. with the best chance of rain moving in late in the day.

 

More coming up on 6TV in just a few minutes. See you there..

 

Brian

Brian: Milder tonight, rain moving in with a cold front by late Sunday..

Good afternoon! Hope everyone had a chance to enjoy today's outstanding mid March weather with plenty of sunshine and highs well into the 70's for most of southwest Florida. Tomorrow should be a little warmer across most of the region as a cold front pushes into the eastern Gulf (usually it's warmest just for a cold front pushes in). That front will lead to increasing clouds tomorrow. Our models at this point are split on rain timing tomorrow.. some of our short range models (we call them the SREFs - short range ensemble forecasts).. are now speeding up the timing of the front and bringing rain in by late tomorrow afternoon while others still hold off the rain chance until sunset or after. I'll get a fresh look at some new forecast models coming up after 8 PM tonight, but for now I'm leaning toward at least a few showers moving into our coastal areas (Lee and Charlotte) by 4-5 PM tomorrow. There is a chance we could see a few storms late tomorrow night into early Sunday as the front comes through... the atmosphere should be unstable enough to allow for that. At this point though, I'm not anticipating anything severe. A stronger wind gust? A possibility.

On average, most of the area will see about a quarter of an inch of rain with the front. Clearing will be slow on Monday and it will be a bit cooler.. with highs in the low 70's. By mid-week, we're rebounding into the upper 70's to near 80 with high pressure moving in -- plenty of sun! Next chance of rain gets here to start the weekend Saturday.

Be sure to check us out on 6 TV tonight at 10 PM and on WINK at 11 (probably a bit later because of basketball). See you then!

Brian

Last Hours of Winter!

Say bye bye to winter!  Sorry to see our crazy (cool and wet) winter go?  Spring begins at 1:32pm tomorrow.  Our first hours of spring will be sunny and warm, even warmer Sunday. - Jim
--
Jim Farrell, CBM
Chief Meteorologist
WINK-TV
Ft. Myers, Fl. 33993
239-338-4368

Brian: Warmer today, highs in the low to mid 70's

In the middle of our 11 AM newscast on 6 TV, but thought I'd post a quick update with some of the new forecast models coming in. Not much changing in the forecast except there is more certainty now that showers will hold off until early Monday morning with our next cold front. That should keep us warm, breezy and dry on Sunday.. with highs in the mid 80's for some of southwest Florida. A little cooler Monday behind the weak front, then warming right back up to near 80 degrees and warmer thereafter. It seems we may have finally broken that cold winter pattern!

 

Have a great weekend!

 

Brian

Brian: A gorgeous Friday in store.. low to mid 70's and sunny..

Friday is off to a chilly start with temperatures in the mid to upper 40's inland and in the low to mid 50's along the coast. We're finished, though, with the upper level disturbances we've seen roll through here the past few days and we're setting the stage for a beautiful weekend across the area (and warm too!). High pressure noses in from the west this afternoon, giving us a sunny sky and highs between 70 and 75. With high pressure nearby tomorrow morning, it will be chilly again to start tomorrow with lows close to 50. By the afternoon, that high slides to the east, putting us on the western side of the high -- the warmer side! Underneath a mostly sunny sky, we'll warm into the upper 70's to near 80 Saturday.

 

For Sunday, our next front moves into the eastern Gulf, giving us a warm and breezy day.. and more humid as well. Our latest models are now holding off the best rain chances until after midnight Sunday/early Monday; so I'll leave the forecast basically dry on Sunday with highs in the low 80's. Clouds will increase, though, during the afternoon.

 

Rain and clouds should hold on through the first half of the day Monday with a clearing trend for the afternoon. The pattern aloft has changed significantly though over the past few days.. the front coming through is not a strong one! We'll be in the mid 70's on Monday, but head back into the 80's by Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Welcome spring!

 

Brian

Cold Tonight

Cold again tonight with low temperatures near 50, 40's inland.  Low pressure moves away and the wind decreases tonight.  Sunny and warmer by tomorrow afternoon with plenty of sunshine. - Jim

--
Jim Farrell, CBM
Chief Meteorologist
WINK-TV
Ft. Myers, Fl. 33993
239-338-4368

Brian: Some low clouds moving in later this morning..

Just a quick update: I'm watching some low clouds moving into the far eastern Gulf now out ahead of that next upper level disturbance. They should reach our coast by mid to late morning.. and increase from there. So, enjoy the sunshine this morning before that slight chance of showers moves in this afternoon!

 

Weekend still looking good on the newest forecast models.. Lauren will have all the latest for you coming up on 6 TV at 11 and on WINK at noon!

 

Brian

Brian: Some patchy fog inland this morning..

Good morning! Thursday is starting off with mainly clear sky and cool temperatures across southwest Florida, with most places in the low to mid 50's this morning. Because of yesterday's light rain, some of the moisture left behind near the ground could help lead to some patchy fog inland as the temperature falls to near the dewpoint (humidity closing in on 100%)... along the coast though, it should be fog free.

 

For today, the second of two upper level disturbances (and last one!) will move through leading to increasing clouds this afternoon. This is a moisture starved system, though, and the chance of rain with it is much lower than yesterday. That said, there could be a couple of light showers near the end of the day. The upper disturbance moves through tonight and by tomorrow it's mostly sunny and we begin a warming trend. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70's Friday.

 

This weekend marks the first weekend of spring (equinox is at 1:32 pm on Saturday, when the sun is directly over the equator).. and the weather will cooperate! Mostly sunny for Saturday with highs in the upper 70's.. Sunday warm & breezy ahead of our next front with highs in the lower 80's. A few showers will move in with the front by Sunday night, but these shouldn't interfere much with your weekend plans!

 

Brian

Happy St. Patrick's Day

Did you know that GREEN is the meteorological color for rain?  How fitting that we had some rain in the area today.  The green on radar is leaving and we will have dry weather this evening and overnight.  See you at 5, 6 and 7pm. - Jim

Brian: Light showers moving through coastal sections now..

Some light rain is moving in off the Gulf of Mexico this morning as the first of two upper level disturbances to affect us over the next couple of days moves through. This first one is the stronger one and will give more of the area a light rain than will tomorrow's. Expect clouds and showers moving from west to east this morning with temperatures in the 50's but, by the afternoon, drier air/more sun moves in and we'll see temps climb into the upper 60's.

 

We'll start the day partly cloudy tomorrow but clouds will return for the afternoon with the second system. Like I mentioned, though, this one is much weaker and should lead to just a couple of isolated showers tomorrow afternoon/evening! After that, high pressure builds in and we get into a nice warming trend headed into the first weekend of Spring... mid 70's Friday, upper 70's Saturday (Spring begins at 1:32 pm) and low 80's on Sunday. Late Sunday some showers will move in ahead of our next front that will cool temperatures only slightly for early next week. Enjoy the weekend!

 

Brian

Scott: High clouds moving above, moving in ahead of the next system that will arrive here tomorrow. Rain on St. Pattys Day? Details at 5pm.

Well our next system arrives tomorrow. Expect a cloudy day with a few light showers developing in the afternoon as a weak low moves just to our north. I am not expecting a lot of rain maybe just enough to wet the ground. It remains cool through the afternoon too. Highs only in the upper 60's. Thursday we will still be under the influence of this low so afternoon clouds move in then with highs in the upper 60's once again. Warm weather by the weekend, lots of sun too. Your full forecast begins at 5pm on WINK.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Slight chance of showers tomorrow & Thursday..

I just got a look at some of the newest forecast models and they all continue to point toward very minimal rain chances for St. Patrick's Day and Thursday. There will be an upper level disturbance moving through each day, but the low level moisture will be very sparse... maybe just enough to squeeze out a few showers. There will certainly be more clouds around Wednesday and Thursday.. that will keep temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's. Clouds move out for Friday and the warm up begins. We'll be near 80 on Saturday and in the low to mid 80's on Sunday!

 

Brian

Brian: High clouds have moved in; temps starting in the 50's

Good morning! A mix of high clouds and sun is in today's forecast with highs ranging from near 70 at the beaches to the mid 70's inland. Looking ahead to tomorrow, there is a very slight chance of a few showers as an upper level disturbance moves by.. so more clouds in the St. Patrick's Day forecast with similar temperatures. Another fast moving upper level disturbance moves by Thursday afternoon with another chance of a few sprinkes. Again, the chance of rain looks pretty meager with both systems!

 

Warming up this weekend.. I'll have more on that when you join us at 6 am on WINK-TV!

 

Brian

Scott: Lots of sun this past weekend! how long will it last? Join me starting at 5!

A beautiful weekend across swfl. Hope you went out and enjoyed it! We are watching a weak area of low pressure that will move through swfl on Wednesday. We will increase the clouds and might see a light shower as well. Most should remain dry through Thursday. How about Saturday and Sunday? Great!! Highs in the low 80's with pleanty of sun! Join me starting at 5pm on WINK!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

The link in the article below is for the coldest February state rankings...

Here is the link for the December 2009-February 2010 cold winter statewide rankings:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=national&image=Statewidetrank&byear=2009&bmonth=12&year=2010&month=02&ext=gif

Coldest winter in U.S. in 25 years!

We in SWFL were not the only ones bundling up and cranking up the heat this winter...according to the National Climatic Data Center, the United States just experienced the coldest December-February period in 25 years, since 1984-1985, and the 18th coldest winter for the contiguous United States in the past 115 years! Teeth chattered the most in Texas and Louisiana which, when compared to average, experienced the coldest winters with their 5th coldest. Seven states other experienced top-ten coldest winters including our home state of Florida which had it's 9th coldest winter on record. Brrr!

Check out the state by state cold winter rankings on NOAA's website:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=national&image=Statewidetrank&year=2010&month=02&ext=gif

El Nino bears a large responsibility in keeping us cool in the Southeast. El Nino however has begun to weaken and most computer forecast models are predicting an end to El Nino by summer...which may not be great timing as we near the start of hurricane season. El Nino typically works to suppress hurricane activity.

Today's forecast: keeping with the cooler trend with high temperatures 5+ degrees below the average, but still comfortable with 70 degrees near the coast to mid 70s inland. Mostly sunny and breezy with wind gusts to 30 mph possible through the afternoon.

Enjoy the sunshine!
Lauren

Sunshine returned to SWFL today...a sight for sore eyes after the record breaking rain event of Thursday and Friday! A dry cold front will pass through the state early tomorrow morning. The front may bring a few clouds to start the day but as the drier air builds in on the backside, a mostly sunny sky will be returned for the afternoon. Expect breezy conditions once again tomorrow with wind gusts to 25 mph and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Have a great night!
Lauren

Scott: Still rain in Charlotte County with a few storms. The heaviest rain left the area. Drier for the weekend!

Wow what a rain event! It all started last evening with an outflow boundary from the storms to the north. This boundary moved into swfl around 7:30pm and collided with an unstable air mass over the Gulf. With the westerlies in place as the storms fired up it brought heavy rain over Charlotte and Lee counties through the overnight period. Then this afternoon the cold front arrived to produce more rain across all of swfl. Rainfall totals including today, Bokeelia had 8", Cape Coral 4.20", Gateway 6,75", Fort Myers 5.50", North Fort Myers 7", and Naples only getting 1".

 

The weekend is here and the rain will be moving out overnight and we should see plenty of sun with temperatures back into the low to mid 70's. Details and rainfall totals starting at 5pm on WINK. Join me at 7pm on WINK..
--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Rain!

The heavy rain has started in parts of SW Florida and 1" - 2"+ will be
possible through tomorrow afternoon. Beware of minor street flooding
in a few areas. - Jim

Sent from my iPhone

Scott: Rain moving into the area tomorrow morning. We had a few storms early in our inland areas but things a little quiet now!

We are still on track for some potentially heavy rain and storms arriving tomorrow midday. So far the timing is looking like between 11am to 6 pm. That is the window we are looking at. Rainfall amounts may be up to 2" in some locations. Could see a few strong to severe storms as the line moves through. Good news for the weekend. The weather clears out Friday night, so Saturday and Sunday looks sunny and mild. Highs in the mid 70's. Details starting a 5pm.. join me at 7pm.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today, tonight and tomorrow...

An area of low pressure, abundant surface moisture, strong winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and a near-by jet stream will combine forces to provide a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight and through the day tomorrow. Some of the storms that do develop may become strong to severe. The threat for strong weather is likely the greatest we've experienced this winter thus far.

We have experienced a frequent pattern of storm systems affecting SWFL this season thereby robbing the 'dry season' of it's typical title. We've racked up rainfall totals at times and a few thunderstorms have rolled through the area but severe weather has remained a rare occurrence. The lack of strong and severe weather despite the wetter weather pattern is due in large part because of a lack of warmth and instability associated with the previous systems.

We know that it's been the coldest December through February period in SWFL since 1981...the cool air has contributed to the lack of storm action in that the atmosphere was too cool and too stable to support the development of strong thunderstorms. This will not be the case today.

High temperatures reaching to 80 degrees and a moderate amount of instability in the atmosphere will allow for possible thunderstorm initiation and once initiated a storm may be able to tap into supportive dynamics in the mid and upper atmosphere. A strong low-level jet and the sub-tropical jet stream which will move over the northern part of the peninsula could enable a thunderstorm to strengthen to strong to severe levels. The main threats will include damaging winds, heavy rainfall and lightning though the possibility of an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

The chance of rain and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast until the cold front associated with the above-mentioned area of low pressure passes through SWFL tomorrow evening. Expect rainfall amounts through the period of 1-2" with 3+" possible locally.

We'll keep you informed of any and all weather updates on WINK!

Lauren

Scott: Rain moving in again! We could get as much as 2 inches in some areas all said and done by late friday night!

We are watching two systems moving into the region. System one will move in on Thursday afternoon and system two arrives Friday with more rain. Some locally heavy by then. The good news is that we will clear things out by Saturday afternoon. Sunday is looking great, with lots of sun and temperatures in the 70's. But as far as the timing and the rainfall amounts. Expect rain Thursday afternoon, about .50" to 1" expected then. Friday looks cloudy and wet, rain likely all day with 1" to 2" expected.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Rain on the way

Clouds will increase and rain is likely tomorrow and Friday.  A cold front will be past by early Saturday, so the weekend is looking dry and sunny.  - Jim

The warmth has returned! A beautiful afternoon in store...

High temperatures will reach to 80 degrees this afternoon for the first time in nearly two weeks despite the fact that our average high in Ft. Myers for early March is 80 degrees! A partly cloudy sky prevails through the rest of our Wednesday...a great day to hit the beach, the pool or to take the dog for a walk! Be sure to soak up the sunshine this afternoon as the warmth remains for tomorrow and Friday, but rain enters the forecast as early as tomorrow morning. For the details on ramping up the rain chances, check in with Chief Meteorologist Jim Farrell on WINK News Now at 5PM.

Enjoy the day!
Lauren

Scott: Wamer weather and a bit more sun Wednesday! Highs in the lower 80s! Rain on the way, Thursday & Friday!

Enjoy the warmer weather! Wednesday's high will be around 80 degrees! We should see a little more sun too, but by the late afternoon the clouds will start to roll in again. Rain back in the forecast for Thursday afternoon and all day Friday. Friday we could see some heavy rain. on average about an 1". The weekend is looking good. The clouds and rain will move out by early morning Saturday. Details on at 5,6, and 7! Join me at 7!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Hey Jim

Hey Jim,

I would like to ask the weather dept. why all the storms in the midwest going east seem to rotate just like a hurricane over land everyday?
I think that is strange!
Is this from al ninio?
Would like to here more about this and al ninio if this what we now have.
Also if connected to all the earth quakes every week a new one?

ozone1



Dear Ozone1,

All areas of low pressure rotate counter clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.  Counter clockwise rotation is not related to El Nino but our extra cool, cloudy and wet winter pattern is.  Get ready for more rain, some tomorrow and more on Fiday.

Jim Farrell

Changes Coming

Everyone is talking about how nice and sunny it is!  Well, it has been sunny, but it wont last.  Clouds will be increasing late tomorrow and there could be some rain in the area by Thursday and Friday. - Jim

Brian: Gulf breeze kicking in at the beaches..

It didn't take much today to get the Gulf breeze going! As soon as temperatures got to about 70 in Naples, the westerly breeze kicked in and that's about it for highs today in coastal Collier County. Inland, underneath a mostly sunny sky (just some high cirrus clouds around), temperatures should climb into the mid 70's before the westerly breeze develops there. Otherwise, a great looking Monday underway!

 

Brian

Brian: Smoky in SWFL -- all of the sudden!

In the last hour or so, we're getting reports of a lot of smoke across southwest Florida.. in fact, we can even smell it right now in our studio! Our reporter Kyle Jordan, who was in Cape Coral today, said it came on suddenly at around 8 AM -- and that's what we saw on our Skycam shot, a clear sky at 7 AM, but quite a bit of haze/smoke over Cape Coral and the Lee Island Coast at 8 AM. What gives? Honestly, it's a bit perplexing even to us!

 

There were several small brush fires around southwest Florida over the weekend, but nothing that was very significant. That said, several of these fires are likely still smoldering somewhat in spots.. so there is some smoke out there. Just after sunrise, we usually reach our coldest temperatures of the day.. and temperatures near the ground would have been slightly cooler than those about 1,000 feet above the ground. This is known as a low level inversion (usually we have colder air above warmer air). This can trap smoke and other particulates near the ground (air can only rise to the "top" of the inversion and then essentially hits a ceiling). The wind is very light this morning, but there is a slight east breeze likely transporting some of the smoldering fire smoke underneath the inversion toward the coast. That's my best guess this morning!

 

Brian

Brian: Mostly clear & cold this morning... near 40 inland, near 50 at the coast

Good morning! Hope everyone got a chance to enjoy some spectacular early March weather this weekend; sure it was a bit on the cooler than average side, but compared to what we've seen all winter long -- not bad! We follow the weekend up with another good one today.. a mostly sunny sky with highs near 70 at the beaches and in the mid 70's inland. For tomorrow, the afternoon Gulf breeze coupled with a weak upper level disturbance could get together to give us just a slight chance of a couple of showers during the afternoon. Otherwise, plan on more clouds at mid week and warmer temperatures.. with highs in the mid 70's tomorrow and near 80 on Wednesday.

 

I'm watching what I'm calling a "lazy" cold front for later this week, one that will meander across Florida and move through in pieces between Thursday and Saturday morning. The timing of each piece of upper level energy along this front will be tricky.. but at this point, it looks like we'll get a shot of a few showers on Thursday afternoon, potentially some heavier rain on Friday afternoon.. and then some isolated showers early Saturday as the front actually clears us. By Sunday, the weather will be more settled and a bit cooler.. with highs in the mid 70's. This does not look to be an "extra cold" cold front!

 

Brian

Not As Cold

Temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight, but it will still be a chilly 48 degrees by early morning.  The upper air pattern will change this week and that means more clouds and some rain by Friday. - Jim

Brian: Temps dropping quickly this evening...

After highs in the upper 60's and low 70's for much of southwest Florida today, we're dropping steadily tonight with a clear sky and a weakening wind. Temps right now are in the mid to upper 40's in a few inland spots.. and in the low 50's elsewhere. We'll wake up to temperatures in the upper 30's inland and 40's along the coast tomorrow morning. There could be some patchy frost inland first thing tomorrow.

 

The rest of the forecast from my last post is pretty much on track. I've upped temperatures just a bit for Wednesday, into the low 80's, as it looks like much of the moisture with our next cold front will still be well to the north -- allowing for more sunshine. Into Thursday, that front will bring scattered showers.. stall across the area.. and potentially help drive another round of some rain Friday afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves by. A stronger front gets here on Saturday with cooler temperatures and, potentially, a chilly Sunday afternoon.

 

See you on 6 TV right now.. and WINK at 11!

 

Brian

Brian: A gorgeous Saturday in SWFL, we'll follow up with a great Sunday!

Beautiful weather across the area with very low humidity and temperatures ranging from the mid 60's north and along the coast to the low 70's inland and south. A touch warmer tomorrow after a cold start with high pressure overhead (30's and 40's one more time!). The warming trend continues into this week as we climb to near 80 for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday... but there are a few showers in the forecast (mostly Thursday).

 

Not so fast on the "end of winter," by the way! Signs among our ensemble forecast models are pointing toward a colder turn in the weather for next weekend and the third week in March. I'll have more on that on WINK at 6 pm. See you then!

 

Brian

Scott: The weekend is here for most and beautiful weather is here! Cold overnight, but afternoon highs in the upper 60's and low 70's!

High pressure building in over the Ohio valley will stretch far south into Florida! A few cold starts but afternoon highs back into the upper 60's and low 70's. 80's by Tuesday and Wednesday. The wind will relax as well for you boaters this weekend. The water temperature is a bit cool though. low 60's! Enjoy the weekend. You skytracker forecast starts at 5, join me!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Trending toward warmer weather next week...

As the large-scale atmospheric pattern we've been locked in for the past several weeks begins to change, gradually warmer weather will work into SWFL. The weekend will be gorgeous, hope you get a chance to enjoy mostly sunny weather and temperatures in the mid 60's tomorrow, low 70's on Sunday. We'll add some more clouds to the mix on Monday as a new low pressure area develops in the central US and the low level moisture increases... but we'll also add several degrees to the temperature - mid 70's!

 

There is a slight chance of a few showers on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves by to the north; with chilly Gulf temps, an increase in moisture and an upper level disturbance.. we could see a few Gulf breeze-type showers develop. A better chance for more widespread rain Thursday night and early Friday as a cold front pushes through. Out ahead of that front, though, we climb to near 80 Wed. and Thu.! Signs are pointing toward another push of cooler air into the area for next weekend, but not of the "extra cold" variety.. we'll keep watching it for you. Have a great weekend!

 

Brian

Brian: So how cold has it been this winter?

I compiled some statistics from this winter at Fort Myers.. check out some of these numbers! We still will likely add to this a few more times before we get to the end of March!

 

Days with a Low At or Below 50 = 40

Days with a Low At or Below 45 = 26

Days with a Low At or Below 40 = 8

Days with a Low At or Below 35 = 3

 

Notice that there were not many extremely cold days; just many, many colder than average days (in terms of low temperature). The reason? El Nino... while that active southern jet stream gave us many days with below average temperatures, it also kept a predominantly NW flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere and a westerly flow in the upper levels. This added up to colder days (compared to average).. the PM "cold" was more extreme than the AM "cold" most days. That active jet stream also provided a lot of high clouds on many evenings, helping to keep the temperature up just a bit.

 

Brian

Brian: Freeze warning until 8 AM inland.. mostly sunny today

It's a cold start (what else is new!) across the area this morning with temperatures near 40 along the coast and near freezing across parts of inland SWFL. There could be some patchy areas of frost over the next hour or two inland. A mostly sunny sky will help us warm up into the mid 60's this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.. and highs in the low 70's are in Sunday's forecast. Looks like a great weekend!

 

Brian

Scott: Cold again tonight, near freezing temperatures inland! Warming up into the weekend. Details @5!

Cold again overnight! We will have three days starting off in the 40's. Still afternoon highs in the 60's tomorrow and Saturday! By Sunday you will feel warmer across the area. Highs in the middle 70's. The good news is we will see plenty of sun for the next five days. Next chance of rain arrives Wednesday morning! Details starting at 5 with me!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

This morning marked the 32nd morning of the year with low temperatures below 50 degrees in Ft. Myers! And tomorrow morning will make number 33!

A cool air mass associated with high pressure will remain in place today and tonight. A mostly clear sky and decreasing wind speeds will reinforce the cooling, allowing overnight lows to drop to chilly levels once again tonight. Expect lows in the mid 40's along the coast to low to mid 30's inland! A Freeze Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for Glades, Hendry, and inland Collier counties from 4am-8am Friday. And don't be surprised to be greeted by some patchy frost in our inland communities by tomorrow morning.

After the cold start to our Friday morning, expect a slightly warmer afternoon with highs in the upper 60's under plentiful sunshine. A sunny sky will dominate through the weekend as well with high temperatures warming to low to mid 70's by Sunday afternoon. Now that's more like it!

Enjoy the sunshine!
Lauren

Brian: Winter's Last Stand is Upon Us... Much Warmer Weather Soon!

Aside from the day-to-day forecast model data, something we meteorologists like to look at are indicies. What are these? They are indicators of the large scale, global weather pattern that we can use to correlate with various types of weather. For example, all winter long we've been locked in something called a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)/postive PNA (Pacific-North American Index) that favors generally cold/stormy weather in the eastern part of the country. Factor in our El Nino pattern, which favors an active subtropical -- or southern branch -- of the jet stream.. and all of the ingredients were there for a cold/extra stormy winter.

 

But time's are changing. Below, I've included links to the various indicies that we look at. A brief summary:

 

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -- Deals with pressure patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean. When this is in a negative phase, strong high pressure is present over Greenland which leads to low pressure being locked over the eastern part of the US. In the positive phase, this is reversed.

 

Pacific-North American (PNA) -- In the positive phase, a strong area of low pressure is centered south of the Aleutian Islands. This leads to a ridge of high pressure over the western half of the country and a trough in the east -- or a dip in the jet stream.

 

Arctic Oscillation (AO) -- When this is negative, colder weather is usually present over the Lower 48.

 

Above, you'll see how each index has been over the past several months... and generally, the NAO/AO have been strongly negative and the PNA has been strongly positive. Notice, though, at the edge of each graph.. the forecast part of the graph.. how the NAO and AO indices are now trending opposite of what it was over the winter (or at the very least, toward a more "neutral" pattern). This is what likely will lead to a "thawing out" of our much colder than average winter in SWFL.. just in time for the start of spring! Now, to feel real confident about even warmer weather.. I'd like to see the PNA changing more strongly toward a neutral pattern -- that is not forecast... so it's not altogether impossible that we could see another cooler period or two.. but the extra cold stuff should be done with!

 

Brian

Brian: Patchy clouds at the coast right now.. sunny later today

Some patchy low clouds along the coast right now, but not nearly as many yesterday as the air starts to warm just above the Gulf of Mexico. We end up sunny this afternoon across all of southwest Florida with highs pushing into the lower and middle 60's. The warm up is underway!

 

Brian

Brian: A Hero at the Hurricane Center

I thought many of you might be interested in this article about Stacy Stewart, one of the outstanding hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center but also a Captain in the US Navy Reserves. Captain Stewart recently was awarded the Bronze Star for his service in Afghanistan, a 12 month tour that recently ended. Fortunately for us, Stewart as back at the NHC just in time for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season -- he's one of the best, and we're lucky to have him back!

 

Brian

Brian: A chilly start this morning... 40's at coast, some 30's inland

Cold temperatures are in place this morning across SWFL as you start your Thursday! With some patchy clouds and an onshore breeze, it's a bit milder at the coast with temperatures in the mid to upper 40's there. Inland, where there is a mainly clear sky, we have temperatures in the mid to upper 30's. Tomorrow morning will be colder for everyone, in fact the coldest of the next 7.. as high pressure builds in overhead, the wind will be light and the sky will be clear. Temps will be near freezing inland (freeze warning for tonight most of our inland counties) and near 40 at the coast.

 

The warm-up, though, is still in the forecast! We get into the upper 60's Friday and Saturday with a mostly sunny sky.. and we should work into the low 70's Sunday with another day full of sun; it's our best weekend in quite some time! And, signs are, this is our last extra cold blast of the season.. I'll have more on that and some of the places I'm looking that tells me that in a little while. See you on WINK!

 

Brian

Scott: Cold tonight! Temps falling into the upper 30's inland, low 40's near the coast. Details at 6!

The wind is going to relax a bit overnight. That will allow temps to fall into the upper 30's inland and the low 40's elsewhere. Get ready for 4 nights in the 40's and 3 days in the 60's. The good news is that we will see a sunny sky for the next 5 days and there will be a gradual warm up into the weekend. Highs by Saturday in the upper 60's and low 70's. No rain in the forecast until Tuesday early morning. Details at 6 and join me at 7!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Colder!

Clearing tonight and colder.  Lows will be in the 40's, again!  Partly cloudy and cool tomorrow.  Cold tomorrow night then warmer into the weekend. - Jim

Brian: Coastal clouds this morning, more sun this afternoon...

You can see the effect of yesterday's cold front by just looking outside this morning if you're along the coast: see all of the clouds? Those low clouds are a result of a brisk northwest wind and cold air running over top of the Gulf of Mexico (at 5,000 feet.. temps near 35 degrees; Gulf temps are near 60). That 25 degree temperature difference has created an unstable low level atmosphere, leading to the clouds. Later today, the wind direction will shift subtly to a more NNW rather than NW wind and the air will warm slightly over the Gulf, allowing some of the clouds to break up. It's much cooler today though, with temps ranging from near 60 in Charlotte County to the mid 60's in Collier.

 

Fewer clouds tonight and lighter wind will add up to a colder start tomorrow; with inland communities in the 30's and the coast in the 40's. Cold starts will hold on straight through the weekend as high pressure builds in...but warmer afternoons are also in the forecast! In fact, for the first time this winter (it seems at least), I don't have a 7-day forecast full of peaks and valleys! Today's the coldest afternoon; by the weekend with a mostly sunny sky, we're near 70.. and near 80 by early next week!

 

Brian

Cool and Cloudy Tonight

Cloudy and cool tonight with lows in the 50's.   The colder air arrives tomorrow.  The high temperature will be near 60 degrees in the afternoon with a breeze.  See you at 11pm on WINK - Jim

Scott: A cool night ahead, but cooler for Thursday and Friday morning! Warmer weekend ahead, Details @5.

We will see a windy evening across the area. Wind gusts will reach the middle 20's. This will bring in some clouds overnight and cooler temperatures too, low 50's expected overnight. By tomorrow, the sky will begin to clear out late in the day. It will remain cool though, low 60's for highs. Still a bit of a NW breeze too, up to 15 mph. It will remain cool until Friday afternoon when we finally reach the low 70's in some locations. Saturday and Sunday, sunny with highs in the upper 70's. Enjoy that! your forecast starting at 5 on WINK TV. Join me at 7!

Brian: Heavier activity in south Lee and Collier..

Continuing to watch some heavier rain/more organized convection (storms) across south Lee and Collier where the atmosphere is more unstable. There was briefly some signs of rotation in one storm just west of Lovers Key and Bonita Beach.. no longer though as that storm has crossed Estero Bay and is moving east of I-75 in San Carlos Park and Estero.. headed just south of town in Lehigh.

 

Watching more heavy rain through Bonita now, and also Naples and Naples Manor. Not a whole lot of lightning with this, but still the potential for some very strong wind gusts. Any reports? We'll take 'em at weather@winktv.com !

 

Brian

Brian: Thunderstorms moving toward south Lee and Collier Counties..

Expect some heavy rain between now and about 10 AM across south Lee and Collier Counties as a batch of storms comes in off of the Gulf. This is the same area I highlighted earlier as being just a little more unstable than areas to the north.. so there is a better chance here than other places for some stronger wind gusts as the storms move through.

 

We're going to catch a dry break here as we head toward late morning. There should be some sunshine developing across the area... before drier/more stable air moves in aloft, we may see some isolated rain areas/storms develop early this afternoon. More on that later.. stay dry. Full update on WINK coming up at 9:25 AM... hope you join us!

 

Brian

Brian: Wind gusts 30 mph+ right now at both Fort Myers and Naples..

If we get a stronger storm this morning, Collier or Hendry County would be the most likely spot. Not much rain in these spots yet (that's changing as I write this), and the lower atmosphere has been allowed to recover in terms of moisture.. dewpoints here are pushing into the mid 60's. This might allow the lower atmosphere to destablize enough (especially east of I-75 in Collier and south to US-41 near Everglades City) to allow for stronger wind gusts. We'll keep you updated here and on WINK/6TV!

 

Brian

Brian: Expect heavy downpours in Charlotte & Lee through 9:15 AM... Collier's rain arriving now at coast...

Brian: Another burst of heavy rain in Charlotte County... Lee to follow..

Watching that area I was mentioning in the last post... it is weakening as it heads toward the coast. There are a few lightning strikes with this so we may see a thunderstorm or two actually making it over land. Gusty wind still the order of the day with these showers (isolated storms)... and some heavy rain. Looking for thse to push into Cape Coral in the next few minutes.. Fort Myers by 8:15 or 8:20 am... farther south in Lee County closer to 8:30 or 8:40. Collier... still high and dry for now.. but not much longer!

 

Brian

Brian: Some heavy rain moving through Highlands County.. scattered showers in Lee

The first line of rain has already moved through Charlotte County and is now pushing through eastern DeSoto and Highlands County. Farther to the south, the line actually has broken up a bit and we have a scattered of brief downpours across Lee County. There is a new line forming from coastal south Charlotte County south to well offshore Collier County and this is showing some signs of strength (some frequent lightning, heavy rain). This likely will lose strength though as it approaches the coast... the atmosphere (low levels) is quite unstable over the Gulf, but stable over land.

 

Forecast looks on track right now... some stronger wind gusts a possibility, but again, severe weather unlikely! We should break into some sunshine is afternoon with temperatures climbing into the low 70's.. not a bad afternoon across SWFL!

 

Brian

Brian: Line of showers & storms approaching... arrival in Charlotte by 7

I wanted to get a quick update online this morning before I get bogged down in rain/storm coverage. Everything is pretty much on track with what we talked about yesterday in the blog. A line of showers and storms is racing toward the SWFL coast this morning.. arrival of the heaviest rain in Charlotte slated for near 7 AM, closer to 8 AM in Lee, and 9 or so in Collier County. Accompanying the rain will be some very strong, gusty wind (40-50 mph+ gusts possible because of a strong low level jet stream at about 5000 feet). Widespread severe weather is unlikely with this line. The lower atmosphere is just too stable right now... and, while you can have severe weather originating from upper level instability (which we do have this morning), the upper level low appears to be tracking too far to the north to give us widepsread strong to severe storms. In a nutshell, the upper levels are primed for severe weather, but the low levels are not even close. But there is strong wind aloft, and that should allow for some strong wind gusts as the line comes through.

 

So much more on WINK-TV and 6TV at 7 AM... hope you join us!

 

Brian

Dry Today, Wet Tomorrow

Becoming cloudy tonight with rain tomorrow.  Tomorrow will also be a windy day and after the rain ends in the afternoon, it will start to get cooler. - Jim

Brian: Welcome to spring.. sort of

Quick post on some stats wrapping up the Winter of 2009-10.. wait, wrapping up the winter? Doesn't winter last another three weeks? Astronomically, yes; meteorologically, no. To make record keeping clean, we meteorologists classify December-January-February as winter. So, without further ado, at Naples:

 

Temperature

Average = 63.08

Departure from Normal = -2.2

Rank = 6th Coldest

 

Precipitation

Total = 6.66"

Departure from Normal = +0.95"

Rank = 22nd wettest

 

Brian

Brian: A Few Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow Morning...

I'm watching a potent upper level disturbance that this morning is spinning across central Texas. Usually, you'd think this system would be a couple of days away from SWFL but this year has been anything but usual! The jet stream is very active across the Gulf as it has been most of the winter; this means that systems move very quickly across the Gulf and, this time, rain will be approaching the coast around daybreak tomorrow.

 

There are a couple of red flags tomorrow with respect to the possibility of severe weather. Most importantly is there will be quite a bit of wind shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere.. first directional (where the wind direction changes rapidly with height), then speed (when the wind speed, not direction, changes with height). This can lead to low level rotation in storms. Secondly, and associated with the first "red flag," is the presence of a strong low level jet stream. Just above the ground, the wind tomorrow morning will be racing out of the southwest at better than 60 mph. This tells me that, at the very least, any storms tomorrow will have the possibility of some very strong, gusty wind.

 

But there are some limiting factors for tomorrow's potential t-storm threat! First is the timing.. the line will be coming through well before the "maximum heating" of the day, when the atmosphere is usually at its most unstable. In fact, it's possible the low levels will remain stable enough to really preclude any strong t-storm chance here (one of our models says yes to this, another says no). Another is the amount of low level moisture that will return ahead of the front. Moisture is what helps fuel these thunderstorms as they approach and right now, the atmosphere is really dry. The final factor is the upper level energy will be lifting to the north and away from south Florida as it approaches.. this likely means the strongest of any storms would actually be located more into central Florida.

 

So right now, while I think the potential is there for one or two gustier storms... I don't think we'll see widespread strong to severe storms in SWFL. Of course, you'll want to stay tuned to WINK and 6 TV today and tomorrow morning as we get new model information!

 

Brian

Brian: 30's Again Inland This Morning.. Near 70 for the Afternoon!

Quick update for this morning... it's another chilly start with temperatures again below 50 degrees throughout southwest Florida. What else is new this winter? We have 30's inland and 40's along the coast. This afternoon, just a few high clouds expected overtop of a couple of lower clouds; we'll call it mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60's and low 70's. I'm watching a strong low over Texas this morning that will rapidly shoot across the Gulf today and tonight.. bringing us a good chance of rain near daybreak tomorrow. There could even be a few thunderstorms but, at this point, it doesn't look like enough low level moisture will return fast enough to allow for a real severe weather threat. That said, there could be a couple of gusty storms with strong wind just above the ground. This could be the last "extra cold" cold front of the season though.. more on that on WINK this morning. See you there!

 

Brian